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The Oilers should trade top pick, says former NHL GM

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tambo The Oilers should trade top pick, says former NHL GM

The Oilers should trade their top draft pick for a top veteran player, either a goalie or a defenceman.

No! The Oilers should trade down a few slots, pick up a few extra picks and then take one of the numerous strong defencemen in the draft.

No, no, no! The Oilers should hold on to the pick, and take the best player available, even if that player turns out to be a Russian forward.

These three positions — and variations on them — will be mulled over endlessly in the next few months, not only on Internet blogs and forums, but also in the Oilers front office and in the mainstream media.

On Sunday afternoon, during the intermission of the Blue Jackets-Oilers game, former Tampa Bay general manager Brian Lawton said it would be wise for the Oilers to trade down in the draft: “The  time has come for the Edmonton Oilers to look to create another asset and if they do, in fact, end up with the number 2 pick, they should look to trade down. There are so many quality defencemen that are available. Morgan Reilly’s been injured this year but he’s out there. Mathew Dumba, very intriguing player. Ryan Murray, probably the top-rated guy in that group and, of course, the very last guy Griffin Reinhart.”

At once, former Oilers player Marty McSorley shot back that the best plan was to hold on to the pick. “When you’re looking at these kids, you’re looking at them at 17 years of age. Before any of them stars for you, they’re going to be 20, 21 or 22 years of age.

“Go out and draft the best player. … You can always make trades. You need assets, you need commodities within your organization.”

Lawton also talked about the risk of taking one of the top Russian forwards, which looks to be the lot of Columbus with the first overall pick. “They are unfortunately pushed back into the very unenviable position of having to take a Russian because the one guy who has separated himself from the rest of the draft pool is Nail Yakupov, very much the way Steven Stamkos did his year, and John Tavares. He is head and shoulders clearcut above the rest. So now the Columbus Blue Jackets will have to decide whether he’s a Malkin-Ovechkin type or a Filtaov-Zherdev type. That’s not going to give them a lot of comfort.”

My take?

As in all things NHL player related, the goal here is to get the best possible player, not take a valuable asset like  a top pick and slice it into three smaller assets. NHL teams don’t need marginal players. Marginal players are easy to get. NHL teams need stars and when they have a chance to grab one, they’re foolish to let go of that chance.

Other factors?

1. McSorely is right that it usually takes d-men quite some time to mature in the NHL. In the last 20 years, of the 34 drafted near the top of the draft, just four of them have put in outstanding performances  in their first two pro seasons: Bryan Berard, Alex Pietrangelo, Scott Niedermayer and Drew Doughty (see review below).

If the Oilers have a top five pick, and if the gap between the various prospects is close, I’d much rather see the Oilers take a forward. NHL scouts are simply better at identifying top forward talent than they are top defenceman talent.

And forwards tend to develop rapidly in the NHL, especially wingers.

2. Nail Yakupov and Mikhail Girgorenko are not Nikolai Zherdev and Nikita Filatov, no more than Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Taylor Hall are Nazem Kadri and Benoit Pouliot.

If one Russian top pick flops it doesn’t mean that other Russians will also be duds.

My strong first impression of Yakupov is that he is a star, an attacking dynamo, a goal bomb waiting to explode in the NHL. He makes the same impression as Taylor Hall did at that age. The big issue will be his health, just as it was with Hall. Can the Yak stay in one piece in the NHL? Huge risk there, just as there was with Hall.

One other thing: for Russian players the lure of the KHL will always be strong, and just because a player played his major junior in Canada doesn’t mean he’s bound to North America, as seen in the case of Alexander Radulov, who played his junior in Quebec City.

Any team drafting a top Russian should invest a lot of time getting to know the young man before any investment in him is made. Just how wedded is he to the NHL? It’s a fair question.

3. With the Oilers strong talent on the wing, and with Sam Gagner’s emergence at centre, if the team can acquire a star NHL defenceman on a long-term deal (or one willing to sign on in Edmonton), the trade should be made.

4. I don’t like the idea of trading down to draft a defenceman. If one or two of the Russians comes across as well as he does off the ice as he does on it, then it’s better to draft the best forward, see how things develop over the next year or two, see if all the Oilers young forwards remain healthy, and trade for a top veteran d-man when the time is right.

P.S. Other recent posts ….

Moneypuck for Dummies (and for Smarties): The First Goal

Moneypuck, Pt 2: Spotlight on Points Inflation

Moneypuck, Pt 3: The Roth/Irvin breakthrough

Moneypuck, Pt. 4: The Roger Neilson Effect

P.P.S.

SURVEY RESULTS

Top drafted defenceman who first played at All-Star game level in their first pro season: Bryan Berard, 48 points, +1, Alex Pietrangelo, 43 points, +18.

Top drafted defenceman who first played at All-Star level in their second pro season: Scott Niedermayer, 46 points, +34; Drew Doughty, 59 points, +20.

Top drafted defenceman who first played at All-Star level in their third pro season: Ryan Whitney, 59 points.

Top drafted defenceman who first played at All-Star level in their fourth pro season: Roman Hamrlik, 65 points in 82 games. Oleg Tverkovsky, 55 points. Chris Pronger, 35 points, +15 plus/minus; Jay Bouwmeester, 46 points.

Top drafted defenceman who first played at All-Star level in their fifth pro season:  None.

Top drafted defenceman who first played at All-Star level in their sixth pro season: Ed Jovanovski, 47 points.

Top drafted defenceman who first played at All-Star level in their seventh pro season: None.

Defencemen drafted in the top five picks since 1990

1990

1991

Scott Niedermayer, third overall, near peak play in first pro season.

Scott Lachance, fourth overall, near peak play in second pro season.

Aaron Ward, fifth overall, near peak play in fourth pro season.

1992

Roman Hamrlik, first overall, near peak play in third NHL season.

Mike Rathje, second overall, peak play after sixth pro season.

Darius Kasparaitis, fifth overall, near peak play in first pro season.

1993

Chris Pronger, second overall, near peak play in fourth pro season.

1994

Ed Jovanovski, first overall, peak play in sixth pro season.

Oleg Tverdovsky, second overall, peak play in fourth pro season.

1995

Bryan Berard, first overall, peak play in first NHL season.

Wade Redden, second overall, near play play first NHL season, peak play in fifth NHL season.

Aki-Petteri Berg, third overall, peak play in fourth pro season.

1996

Chris Phillips, first overall, near peak play in third pro season.

Andrei Zyuzin, second overall, near peak play in fourth pro season.

Richard Jackman, fifth overall, peak play in seventh pro season.

1997

Eric Brewer, fifth overall, peak play in third pro season.

1998

Brad Stuart, third overall, near peak play in first pro season.

Bryan Allen, fourth overall, peak play in sixth pro season.

Vitaly Vishnevsky, fifth overall, near peak play in fifth pro season.

1999

2000

Rostislav Klesla, fourth overall, near peak play in first pro season

2001

2002

Jay Bouwmeester, third overall, peak play in fourth pro season.

Joni Pitkanen, fourth overall, peak play in third pro season.

Ryan Whitney, fifth overall, near peak play in second pro season.

2003

2004

Cam Barker, third overall, not yet consistent peak play in sixth pro seasons.

2005

Jack Johnson, third overall, peak play in fourth NHL season. But has been traded twice now. Plays heavy minutes.

2006

Erik Johnson, first overall, not yet at consistent peak play in fifth NHL season. Has been traded, but is second for Avs d-men for time-on-ice.

2007

Thomas Hickey, fourth overall, not yet peak play in third pro season.  OK player at AHL level.

Karl Alzner, fifth overall, not yet peak play in third pro season, but has become a useful defensive d-man in his fourth pro season.

2008

Drew Doughty, second overall, peak play in second pro season. Strong player.

Zack Bogosian, third overall, has had injury problems but has been used heavily in Winnipeg this year when healthy. Not yet at peak.

Alex Pietrangelo, fourth overall, near peak play in first pro season. A top NHL defenceman.

Luke Schenn, fifth overall, not yet peak play in fourth pro season. Has regressed this year.

2009

Victor Hedman, second overall, now in top-pairing in Tampa Bay in his third season. Not yet at peak play.

2010

Erik Gudbranson, third overall, third pairing d-man in Florida in his first pro season.



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